| The Untapped
Market for Rail Passenger Service |
In August 1983, this report was prepared for HVCEO by SG Associates
of Boston, MA. The purpose of the report was to describe the
current passenger rail service conditions in a persuasive and
professional manner in order to justify improvements to the service.
Present and former HVCEO members as well as state legislators
from the region have a long history of lobbying for the maintenance
and improvement of passenger service.
As of 1979, there were 927 daily round trips taken on the Danbury Line and nearly
all traveled to New York City. A significant untapped market existed that was
composed of persons living in the Housatonic Region and working in southwestern
Connecticut (intrastate commuters). The total number of people was 13,902 living
and work in this scenario, of which 5,478 (39%) worked within walking distance
of a rail station or had access to employer-based shuttle service. If everyone
within 2 miles of rail stations had an employer shuttle available, the potential
rail market would be 10,971. This potential passenger market was untapped because
service was infrequent and required transfers.
Other potential Danbury Line commuters were identified as using the Harlem Line
(400 people) and in Brookfield and New Milford. Four hundred Housatonic Valley
residents used the Harlem Line in New York to commute to New York City. Nearly
2,200 people commuting from Brookfield and New Milford to other Housatonic Valley
towns represented another potential rail rider market (40% of the 5,482 total
commuters).
The HVCEO study recommended several service improvement options to reach the
potential rail commuter markets currently untapped. The strongest recommendation
was electrification. Other service strategies evaluated were express versus local
stop service on the Danbury Line and the extent of shuttle service available
at destination stations.
Electrification was expected to generate savings in energy consumption,
reduce maintenance costs, and generate new ridership, but would
require major capital improvements prior to electrification.
Annual revenue, fixed capital investment, annual operating costs,
and increases in ridership for each of the different options
were also estimated.
Electrification was projected to increase ridership from 27 to 300 based on
reduced travel times and greater service frequency. The potential to reach
ridership of 590 was projected if maximum shuttle service was implemented.
Reverse commute options were expected produce ridership between 36 and 118
if the local service option was adopted and between 68 and 169 if the express
service option was chosen. It was also estimated that electrification would
sway 70% of the Housatonic Valley residents currently using the Harlem Line
to switch to the Danbury Line (280 people). Employment growth at Merritt 7
was also noted as a potential area for rail passenger service. If a Merritt
7 Station were created, between 56 and 73 daily rail trips were estimated to
be added. Increased ridership would create new parking demands. The worst parking
shortfall was anticipated at Danbury with a maximum of 643 spaces, and Bethel
also was predicted to have parking shortfalls between 55 and 127 spaces.
Given the ridership and cost projections, the
study listed the following recommendations:
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• Implement electrified, express service
from Danbury with 3 peak express runs and 3 peak local stop
runs
• Do not extend service to New Milford
• Construct the Danbury Transportation Terminal with the maximum number
of parking spaces
• If the local service alternative is implemented instead, a new station
should be constructed between Bethel and Danbury
• Serve the Merritt 7 Complex only if the Danbury Line is electrified
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