The
Untapped Market for Rail Passenger Service
In August 1983, this report was prepared for HVCEO by SG Associates
of Boston, MA. The purpose of the report was to describe the current
passenger rail service conditions in a persuasive and professional
manner in order to justify improvements to the service. Present and
former HVCEO members as well as state legislators from the region
have a long history of lobbying for the maintenance and improvement
of passenger service.
As of 1979, there were 927 daily round trips taken on the Danbury
Line and nearly all traveled to New York City. A significant untapped
market existed that was composed of persons living in the Housatonic
Region and working in southwestern Connecticut (intrastate commuters).
The total number of people was 13,902 living and work in this scenario,
of which 5,478 (39%) worked within walking distance of a rail station
or had access to employer-based shuttle service. If everyone within
2 miles of rail stations had an employer shuttle available, the potential
rail market would be 10,971. This potential passenger market was untapped
because service was infrequent and required transfers.
Other potential Danbury Line commuters were identified as using the
Harlem Line (400 people) and in Brookfield and New Milford. Four hundred
Housatonic Valley residents used the Harlem Line in New York to commute
to New York City. Nearly 2,200 people commuting from Brookfield and
New Milford to other Housatonic Valley towns represented another potential
rail rider market (40% of the 5,482 total commuters).
The HVCEO study recommended several service improvement options to
reach the potential rail commuter markets currently untapped. The
strongest recommendation was electrification. Other service strategies
evaluated were express versus local stop service on the Danbury Line
and the extent of shuttle service available at destination stations.
Electrification was expected to generate savings in energy consumption,
reduce maintenance costs, and generate new ridership, but would require
major capital improvements prior to electrification. Annual revenue,
fixed capital investment, annual operating costs, and increases in
ridership for each of the different options were also estimated.
Electrification was projected to increase ridership from 27 to 300
based on reduced travel times and greater service frequency. The potential
to reach ridership of 590 was projected if maximum shuttle service
was implemented. Reverse commute options were expected produce ridership
between 36 and 118 if the local service option was adopted and between
68 and 169 if the express service option was chosen. It was also estimated
that electrification would sway 70% of the Housatonic Valley residents
currently using the Harlem Line to switch to the Danbury Line (280
people). Employment growth at Merritt 7 was also noted as a potential
area for rail passenger service. If a Merritt 7 Station were created,
between 56 and 73 daily rail trips were estimated to be added. Increased
ridership would create new parking demands. The worst parking shortfall
was anticipated at Danbury with a maximum of 643 spaces, and Bethel
also was predicted to have parking shortfalls between 55 and 127 spaces.
Given the ridership and cost projections, the study
listed the following recommendations:
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- Implement electrified, express service from
Danbury with 3 peak express runs and 3 peak local stop runs
- Do not extend service to New Milford
- Construct
the Danbury Transportation Terminal with the maximum number of
parking spaces
- If the local service alternative is
implemented instead, a new station should be constructed between
Bethel and Danbury
- Serve the Merritt 7 Complex only
if the Danbury Line is electrified
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